The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported a decline in Nigeria’s GDP per capita, which fell from $877.07 in 2024 to $835.49 in 2025, marking a 4.74% drop. This continues a downward trend since 2014, when GDP per capita was at a high of $3,220. GDP per capita measures the average economic output per person and reflects the standard of living in a country. Despite the current decline, the IMF predicts growth in the coming years, expecting Nigeria’s GDP per capita to cross the $1,000 mark by 2028. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has rebased the GDP to include new sectors like digital economy, pension funds, health insurance, and modular refineries, which could provide a more accurate economic picture.
Despite the GDP decline, Nigeria’s business environment shows signs of resilience. The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report indicated continued growth in private sector activity in early 2025, with increased business orders and hiring. According to Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research at Stanbic IBTC Bank, businesses saw higher demand, leading to job creation for the second consecutive month. However, inflation remained a challenge, averaging 33.1% in 2024, driven by factors like currency depreciation, fuel price increases, and food supply shortages. The IMF expects inflation to drop to 25% in 2025, offering some relief to businesses and consumers.
Projections for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025 vary. The IMF forecasts a 3.2% GDP growth, while the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) predicts a more optimistic 5.5% if reforms continue. Meanwhile, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso expects 4.1% growth, citing factors like increased oil refining capacity from Dangote Refinery and the revitalization of Port Harcourt and Warri refineries. He also emphasized the importance of a stable exchange rate and government reforms in driving economic recovery. With different predictions, the success of Nigeria’s economy in 2025 will depend on how well policies are implemented and sustained.